This pair of short pieces were published a week apart by distinguished decision theorist Gary Klein. Their very-similar titles promise insight into how critical thinkers can be better at noticing absent evidence – things which are not present, or didn’t happen, but which might be just as “telling” for or against various hypotheses as their more salient “present” counterparts. The advice he provides boils down to two points. (1) Be experienced. Experience sets up (often unconscious) expectations, whose violations might capture our attention, or at least create an uneasiness which prompts us to wonder what we’re missing. (2) Have an active, curious mindset. This “goes behind what we can see and hear, and starts puzzling when an expected event fails to materialize.”
I have plenty of respect for Klein, but these are disappointing pieces. They mainly just rehash anecdotes from his earlier work. He says very little about how experience or an active mindset actually work to help us notice what’s missing, or how to achieve either of these things. In fact “an active curious mindset” seems to be little more than a redescription of the ability to notice things – barely more satisfying than saying “pay attention!” or “look around for what’s missing!”. In studying these pieces, I engaged an active curious mindset. I noticed what was missing: anything of any great insight or use. Which I know from experience is unusual in Klein’s case.