“As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”
From a good piece in the Motley Fool called Maybe Yes, Maybe No. Core idea is pretty much the same as in my newspaper piece Do you hold a Bayesian or a Boolean worldview?
See also rba.tips – a site designed in part to help people better understand probabilistic thinking.
re characteristics of “Superforecasters” (one of which is thinking in nuanced probabilities and updating them Bayesianly!) see http://edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i for the recent Edge.org summer short course …