Draft of a section of a guide I’m working on. Feedback welcome. Hypothesis investigation (short for “hypothesis-based investigation”) is simply attempting to determine “what is going on” in some situation by assessing various hypotheses or “guesses”. The goal is to determine which hypothesis is most likely to be true. Hypothesis investigation can concern Factual situations [...]
Archive for the ‘Hypothesis Testing’ Category
Hypothesis Investigation – overview
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Hypothesis mapping, Hypothesis Testing on May 19, 2009 | 4 Comments »
What is hypothesis mapping?
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Hypothesis mapping, Hypothesis Testing, Intelligence on January 20, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
A quick, 15-point overview of hypothesis mapping.
Future trend: hypothesis mapping displacing ACH
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, bCisive, Hypothesis mapping, Hypothesis Testing, Reasoning on December 15, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Slides from a presentation at an intelligence & security seminar in Canberra last week. Thanks to Brett Peppler for getting me the gig.
Hypothesis testing – What’s Wrong with ACH?
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Argument Mapping, Hypothesis Testing on December 31, 2007 | 7 Comments »
A condensed version of this has been published as Can we do better than ACH? AIPIO News, Issue 55, December 2008, pp.4-5. The “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” method, or ACH, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analyst’s bench. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is [...]
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