Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Hypothesis Testing, Hypothesis mapping on May 19, 2009 | 4 Comments »
Draft of a section of a guide I’m working on. Feedback welcome.
Hypothesis investigation (short for “hypothesis-based investigation”) is simply attempting to determine “what is going on” in some situation by assessing various hypotheses or “guesses”. The goal is to determine which hypothesis is most likely to be true.
Hypothesis investigation can concern
Factual situations – e.g. what [...]
Posted in Argument Mapping, Decision mapping, Hypothesis mapping, Mapping, Thinking on May 4, 2009 | 1 Comment »
“As I have said many times, it is simple, but not easy.” – Warren Buffett.
Buffett is of course talking about investment, but the same seems to me to be true of mapping (whether of the decision, argument or hypothesis variants).
The principles are simple enough. What for example could be simpler to state and understand than [...]
Posted in Hypothesis mapping, JFK on February 16, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
For quite a few years now Austhink Consulting has run a 3-day advanced argument mapping workshop using the JFK assassination as a case study. Specifically, we used the trial arguments by Jim Garrison, as presented in the Oliver Stone movie JFK, that there must have been a conspiracy.
We remained officially agnostic about the conclusion [...]
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Hypothesis Testing, Hypothesis mapping, Intelligence on January 20, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
A quick, 15-point overview of hypothesis mapping.
Posted in ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Hypothesis Testing, Hypothesis mapping, Reasoning, bCisive on December 15, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Slides from a presentation at an intelligence & security seminar in Canberra last week.
Thanks to Brett Peppler for getting me the gig.
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