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The central responsibility, for Boards and for individual Directors, is to make good decisions.  What can Directors do to improve their decision making ability?

First, it is important to understand that decision making is a complex cognitive skill.  It is not an innate talent that some people were granted at birth.  Nor is it something that simply builds up with lots of experience – though experience is certainly relevant.

Rather, decision making is a cultivated skill, or in other words a domain of acquired expertise.   So the question becomes – how can Directors acquire more of this expertise, particularly with regard to the specific kinds of decision challenges that come before Boards?

We can look to contemporary cognitive science for some insights here.  A sub-field of cognitive science addresses the problem of expertise.   Scientists in this area are basically asking “How do people get really good at something?”

The dominant answer that has emerged over the past few decades is not really all that surprising.  To get really good, you need to do lots of good practice.   To be the best, you need to do the most, best quality practice.  The main reason Tiger Woods has been the top golfer is that he practised more, and more effectively, than anyone else.

For Directors, this means that to enhance your decision expertise, you need lots of practice making Board-type decisions.   Note that it is quality practice you need, not necessarily experience.   A Sunday golfer can accumulate lots of experience over the years, but their game never really improves because they are not working “on” their game.   In fact, lots of experience can make it harder to improve skills, because it can entrench bad habits.

This is where Julie Garland Mclellan’s “Director’s Dilemma” newsletter, and her new book Dilemmas Dilemmas, are so valuable.   They present lots of realistic case studies of decision problems of the kind that Directors regularly confront.  They give lots of opportunities for Directors to work on their game.

However, simply working through the case studies – and reading the “model answers” provided – may not be enough.   What really matters is how you practice.  And here the key insight is the obvious point that if you’re not in some way changing the way you do things, then your expertise will not improve.   To really get the benefit of working through case studies, you need to be expanding and refining your skill set.

Directors’ decision challenges, as illustrated in Dilemmas Dilemmas, are typically complex deliberative problems.  That is, they involve clarifying the problem, recognising a range of options and perhaps suboptions,  understanding the advantages and disadvantages of those options, and weighing up them up.   The core skill is disentangling and evaluating a complex set of issues and arguments.  How can a Director come to do this better?

One approach is to exploit the visual.  We know, in general, that when confronted with complexity, the human mind performs better with suitable visualisations.  A simple example: to understand how all the streets, train lines, etc., in a modern city are laid out, we use diagrams such as the maps found in a road atlas or, these days, the displays on GPS devices.

What is true for roads is even more true for deliberative decisions, which are abstract and indefinitely complex.   The human mind can cope more easily when the options, pros and cons, arguments and detailed evidence are laid out in a visually attractive, easily scannable form.   And the process of laying out the problem in this form can help introduce clarity and rigour.   The overall result is better understanding of the problem, better evaluation of the options, and, on average, better choices being made.

This approach to decision making has been pioneered by Austhink, who have developed a software tool (bCisive) to support the process.

Austhink has teamed up with Julie Garland Mclellan to offer workshops combining her Board expertise and case studies with Austhink’s methods and tools.  The workshops are intended primarily for “emerging” Directors – those who have recently become Directors, or hope to become Directors, or hope to take their directorial activity to a higher level.  Our ambition is that these workshops would be one of the most effective things that Directors – at any level of experience or expertise – could do to enhance their decision making expertise.   And if individual Directors can improve their game, Board decision making in general should also improve.

More information about the workshops.

  1. Martin Davies, a colleague of mine at the University of Melbourne and a energetic advocate of argument mapping in teaching critical thinking has published “Computer-assisted argument mapping: a rationale approach” in the journal Higher Education.  In the article Martin describes using argument mapping in an upper-level Economics subject, and discusses how the students themselves regarded the exercise as helping them improve their critical thinking skills.  This reinforces the conclusion from other studies using pre- and post-testing which have found that student skills do in fact improve.
  2. The most popular post on this blog by a significant margin has been “What is Argument Mapping?“.   When first posted, it was a draft of an entry submitted to a new “Encyclopedia of the Mind.”  I have now revised the entry in response to editors’ suggestions & requirements, and I’ve now put the probably-final version on the blog post in place of the old draft version.    Or you can download a print-friendly version.

 

I’m currently working on a book on decision mapping (and more generally, deliberative decision making), tentatively called Draw the Right Conclusion!.  I’ll be periodically releasing draft chapters.   First cab off the rank is the Introduction.

Comments and suggestions most welcome.

Here are the opening paragraphs:

In late 1772 Joseph Priestley was wrestling with a mundane problem.

Over a period of just a few years, Priestley had transformed himself from a little-known minister and teacher in towns of northern England into one of the most important scientists of his day.  He had published the History and Present State of Electricity, the first compendium of scientific knowledge in this new field, and the dominant textbook for the next hundred years.  His recent investigations had revealed one of the most profound aspects of life on earth: that plants make the air fit for us to breathe.  This work earned him the Royal Society’s Copley Medal, the Nobel Prize of his day.  Soon he was to isolate the substance that plants were providing, thereby playing a crucial role in the discovery of oxygen.

Yet the dilemma causing him so much anxiety was of a kind any of us might recognize.  Should he move with his young family from Leeds to Wiltshire?  He had been offered a kind of patronage by William Petty, the controversial Earl of Shelburne.  Shelburne would house the Priestleys at his estate, Bowood, and provide Joseph with a laboratory and time for research.  In return Joseph would be required to act as tutor to Shelburne’s sons and advisor to Shelburne himself.  Priestley had to resolve a personal conundrum laced with unknowns and incommensurabilities.  Would he be sufficiently free to pursue his intellectual passions?  Would his experimentation continue to bear fruit in the new environment?  Did he owe it to his family to accept the greater comfort and security attached to the new position?

Eventually Priestley turned for help to his friend and scientific colleague, the great American scientist and statesman Benjamin Franklin.  Franklin replied in a letter which has become a classic in the theory of decision making:

My way is to divide half a sheet of paper by a line into two columns; writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then, during three or four days consideration, I put down under the different heads short hints of the different motives, that at different times occur to me, for or against the measure. When I have thus got them all together in one view, I endeavor to estimate their respective weights; and where I find two, one on each side, that seem equal, I strike them both out. If I find a reason pro equal to some two reasons con, I strike out the three. If I judge some two reasons con, equal to three reasons pro, I strike out the five; and thus proceeding I find at length where the balance lies; and if, after a day or two of further consideration, nothing new that is of importance occurs on either side, I come to a determination accordingly. And, though the weight of the reasons cannot be taken with the precision of algebraic quantities, yet when each is thus considered, separately and comparatively, and the whole lies before me, I think I can judge better, and am less liable to make a rash step, and in fact I have found great advantage from this kind of equation…

Franklin called this method a “moral algebra”: a kind of calculation, but one suited to human affairs, where often the stakes are large, the alternatives many, the considerations diverse and uncertain, and where your choice will be a test and reflection of your character.

Such as whether to get married, and in particular whether to marry your cousin…

Read the whole draft chapter…

Two recent publications have important implications for how Boards make decisions.  One is an academic treatise on how information is shared in teams.  A Board is a kind of team, working together to (among other things) make major decisions.  The practice of having a team make the big decisions is based on the idea that teams will, generally, make better decisions than individuals.  This is founded in turn on various assumptions:

  • Good decision making depends in part on taking into proper account relevant information;
  • Teams collectively possess more relevant information than individuals; and
  • Teams share and make use of that information in their deliberations.

    The authors of Information Sharing and Team Performance: A Meta-Analysis focused on this third issue.  They did a comprehensive review of existing studies on how teams share information, making a number of interesting findings.  If we extrapolate those findings to Boards, we can infer:

    • That sharing of information in Board meetings will indeed improve Board decisions.
    • However, Boards will generally not share information as effectively as they could.
    • In particular, Boards will tend to spend their time talking about what everybody already knows, rather than sharing important information that only a few people know.
    • In fact, the more there is a need for information sharing, the less information sharing will actually happen.
    • The more time the Board spends talk, the more they just rehearse what they already know.
    • Boards will share better if they think they are solving some kind of factual issue as opposed to making a judgement requiring consensus.
    • Boards share information better if they use a structured discussion process, rather than just indulging in the usual kind of spontaneous conversation.

    In short, there should be scope for Boards to improve their decisions by changing the way they conduct their discussions so as to promote better sharing of critical information.

    As it happens, a recent piece from McKinsey makes much the same point.  In “Using the crisis to create better boards” in the October 2009 issue of McKinsey Quarterly, the authors zero in on information sharing using structured techniques:

    “Chairmen can expose their boards to new sources of information – such as new performance benchmarks, new customer demands, or new financial perspectives – in many ways.  One involves tapping into the rich experience of nonexecutive and executive directors who also hold external appointments.  Each board member can be asked to share one fresh idea as part of a discussion about the company’s future…”

    The idea of going around the table asking everyone to contribute an idea is hardly very profound or original, and it is curious that leading management consultants, in the pages of the journal of one of the top shelf consulting firms, would be encouraging Boards of top organizations to make use of such a simple technique.   The fact that such a suggestion is seriously being made actually suggests that the issue of poor information sharing, discussed in abstract terms in the academic meta-analysis, is in fact a very real problem at the highest levels.

    Later in their piece, the authors get a little more specific about some of the information that needs to be shared and how to do it:

    Chairmen ought to help their boards…by requesting that all significant proposals come with a “red team” report presenting contrary arguments…the chairman would merely request that the board hear arguments for and against any important proposal.  The CEO would therefore have to think deeply before submitting the proposal, undecided board members could insist on a fuller discussion, and a rival paradigm might see the light of day.

    This suggestion is very much in line with our proposal that organisations improve Board deliberations, and hence decision making, by adopting decision mapping.   Decision maps, by their nature, include “the arguments for and against any important proposal,” though they include such arguments in a wider framework encompassing the overall structure of the decision.

    The McKinsey authors seem to be suggesting – and we would agree – that Boards don’t need more information thrown at them, in the form of door-stopping Board reports or dense PowerPoints.  Rather, they should look to benefit by more effectively sharing with each other the critical information and insights which they may already have, and understanding what difference that information makes to the issue.

    Julie Garland Mclellan has posted another of her Director’s Dilemmas.  This time I had the interesting task of coming up with one of the three “answers” or commentaries, and used decision mapping to derive my recommendations.   Here is the map:

    donna

    Click on the image or here to view the zoomable pdf file.

    Transcribing the map into prose yields the commentary:

    Donna’s immediate issue is whether to accept the request to take the Chair….

    Donna has three main options: accept the Chair, decline, or escape the issue by resigning. On moral grounds she should accept, given that she is the most appropriate person – the other Directors have chosen her – and it would satisfy her sense of responsibility to the majority of shareholders. Greater demands and stress would be offset by increased remuneration and status.

    Once Chair, she would have at least three courses of action with regard to the troublesome Director. First, she should try to convince the trustee to replace the Director. Her “awareness” that the trustee would not support replacement sounds vague and may be ill-founded. Removing the troublesome director would resolve the crisis unless the trustee appoints another ill-suited person.

    Failing that, second, Donna should attempt to manage the situation. One option is to try to moderate the Director’s behaviour. The previous Chair’s failure suggests this is unlikely to succeed; however a fresh approach may work better. Donna should bear in mind the “fundamental attribution bias”, whereby we exaggerate the extent to which other peoples’ behaviour is driven by supposed personality traits rather than contingent circumstances. Another option is to contain the misbehaviour by meeting with other Directors and senior management to establish strong Board processes and norms.

    In blocking the troublesome Director’s ambition to be Chair, the Directors were accepting the risk of his forcing an EGM. Perhaps the situation will only be resolved in this manner. Consequently Donna must, third, prepare for the EGM so as to try to ensure the best outcome for the company.

    How does my commentary compare with the two others, which were by people with considerably more board experience?

    • There was a large overlap in the range of options that were considered across the three commentaries.
    • Julie’s commentary tended to offer more detail and nuance with regard to a selection of options that we both considered.

    These observations suggest (very anecdotally of course) that a systematic approach to decision making can to go a fair way towards making up for lack of domain knowledge; and more generally that there is such a thing as relatively generic, domain-independent expertise in thinking for decision making.   Of course, the best decision maker would combine both generic expertise and detailed domain knowledge.

    Now available: Enhancing Board Decisions with Decision Mapping (pdf)

    Boards can improve their effectiveness by refining their decision-making processes.  To this end we recommend adoption of decision mapping to assist individual Directors to appreciate the logical structure of Board decisions, thereby enabling them to participate more effectively in Boardroom debates.  Specifically, Management create decision maps as an integral part of preparing Board papers, and the maps are included in the materials provided to Directors.

    This is a compact (6 page) version of the full white paper, which is currently under revision.

    Print version (pdf)

    Simply put, decision mapping is drawing a map of the thinking involved in a deliberative decision.

    Making a decision is essentially trying to choose the best thing to do from a range of options.  Each of those options may have various advantages and disadvantages, and these in turn may be supported by further arguments and evidence, or subject to dispute.  Decision mapping displays this complex structure in an easy-to-follow diagram.

    There are two main aspects to it.  First, there is making fully explicit the various decision ingredients – the questions, options and sub-options, pros and cons, arguments and evidence – and their relationships in a systematic, disciplined way.

    Second, there is producing the map, i.e. laying all this out in visual form.  Following a set of diagramming conventions, and using purpose-built software, we produce a map showing what we’ve got and how it all hangs together.   The map can be displayed on screen or printed out, sometimes in the form of a large chart or poster.

    Here is an example: a map based on a Harvard Business Review case study (click to see larger image):

    whenyourcolleagueisasaboteur

    Benjamin Franklin famously recommended that, to make a difficult decision, we should list the Pros and Cons of a course of action on a sheet of paper, and “cancel out” those of equal weight.  Decision mapping is really just Franklin’s “Moral Algebra” extended to handle more complex deliberative decision structures and modified so as to take advantage of contemporary information-processing technologies.

    But why would do this?

    Fundamentally, decision mapping helps us make better decisions.  It helps improve “hit rate,” i.e. the proportion of decisions we get basically right.  It does this by improving the thinking leading up to the decision.

    The process of decision mapping, properly followed, makes the thinking more clear, rigorous and complete.  Following the decision mapping guidelines, we can articulate and organise our thinking more effectively.  Then, when it comes time to make our choice, our judgement is more well-founded.

    The map itself helps us get our minds around the decision.  The reality is that decisions, especially important ones, are often quite complicated.  By default we try to hold and process that complexity in our heads.  The trouble is that our cognitive capacities are limited in crucial ways, and can be quickly overwhelmed.  Relevant considerations get ignored, and cognitive biases kick in.   A decision map helps address this problem by storing the thinking outside the head in an easily-surveyable form.   In effect, working with decision maps is like adding RAM to our minds, allowing us to devote more cognitive resources to the really hard task of evaluating the arguments and choosing the right option.

    Any other reasons?

    Well, yes… for one thing, it can reduce the stress associated with decision making.  It helps dispel some of the anxiety which inevitably arises while making an important decision.  When we can quite literally see that the thinking has been done properly, then we can be more confident that our choice is going to be well made and will turn out well.  If things nevertheless turn out badly, we’ll have fewer regrets about our choice.

    Decision mapping also creates a clear record of the core thinking behind a decision.  This is useful if we need to make more decisions of a similar nature, or if at some point we need to look back and review the thinking behind a particular course of action.  This can be especially handy if fate conspires against us and our well-made decision goes wrong.  When the Inquisition comes knocking, we can show our map.

    Decision mapping can help us communicate the thinking behind a decision.  We can show the map itself, so others can then quickly see what options and arguments were considered.  Alternatively the map can be the roadmap for some other form of communication such as a document or a PowerPoint presentation.

    Better communication is important when a team is trying to work together on a decision.  An emerging decision map helps keep everyone “on the same page,” with a shared understanding of the issues and considerations in play.  Contributions can then be more productive, and everyone on the team ends up with a stronger sense of ownership of the eventual decision and the outcome.

    What sort of decisions is it good for?

    At a theoretical level, decision mapping is designed for deliberative decisions.   These are the decisions we make by weighing up the arguments bearing one way or another on our various options.

    Deliberative decisions contrast with intuitive (or “blink”) decisions which involve little if any conscious consideration of options and their merits – for example, choosing to swerve when a cyclist suddenly enters our lane.  They also contrast with technical decisions.  This broad category encompasses all decisions made via some kind of formal or technical decision procedure, usually quantitative in nature.  Multi-criteria decision analysis and its numerous kith and kin are the central examples.

    In practice, most important decisions are made deliberatively.  To take a dramatic case, transcripts of conversations among President Kennedy and his team during the Cuban Missile Crisis show that they were exploring options and trading arguments – in short, deliberating.  At a more personal level, consider what you would do in deciding whether or when to have a serious surgical operation.

    So decision mapping, as an enhanced form of deliberative decision making, will be suitable for a wide range of major decisions.

    Such as?…

    Many business decisions are made deliberatively, and a great deal can turn on making these decisions well.  This makes decision mapping particularly relevant to business.   For example, Board decisions typically involve weighing up the case presented by Management for a particular course of action in the light of various potential objections and alternatives.

    Every month the Harvard Business Review provides a case study describing a realistic business scenario in which a senior figure is called to make some kind of hard call.  Decision mapping, it turns out, fits these case studies very well.

    This is not to say that decision mapping is the “one true way” for making business decisions.  Intuitive and technical decision methods certainly have their place.  Different decision techniques are appropriate for different types of decisions; the ideal is to be expert in each, and to choose the right tool for the job.

    Isn’t this just mind-mapping?

    There is certainly a family resemblance between decision mapping and other mapping techniques such as mind mapping and concept mapping.  All involve displaying complex structures of information using “node and line” diagrams.  However decision mapping is tailored specifically for decision making, and so has its own unique set of rules, visual conventions and procedures.   Also decision mapping tends to be more rigorous and demanding than its more well-known cousins.

    Decision mapping is closely related to the Minto Pyramid Principle, a set of concepts and techniques widely used in management consulting to clarify and discipline thinking.  The similarity or overlap is inevitable since both reflect fundamental principles of good thinking and use simple diagrams.   However while decision mapping is focused solely on decisions, the Pyramid Principle emphasizes preparation of thoughts for written presentation.

    Who else is using it?

    In one sense, the answer is – everyone.  All of us are on occasion involved in making weighty decisions by articulating the options and the pros and cons and associated arguments.  We may lay these out in a document or PowerPoint presentation, or just try to hold them in our mind’s eye.  This is decision mapping, but usually done in a relatively haphazard manner and using an inferior mode of presentation.  We all count as decision mappers because decision mapping, in the full sense described here, is really just making what we all naturally do more systematic and visual.

    Decision mapping “as such” is a new development and is only just starting to spread.  Austhink has been using decision mapping to facilitate decision processes in a number of large companies, government departments and non-profit organisations.  And since the release of the bCisive software, decision mapping is starting to be picked up around the world, with users applying decision mapping to diverse issues in their organisations or their personal lives.

    bCisive? What’s that?

    bCisive (“be decisive”) is software designed to support decision mapping.  It also supports related activities such as argument mapping and hypothesis mapping.

    In theory, decision mapping does not require any particular technological aids.  A decision map could be drawn using a whiteboard, Microsoft Visio, or even in the sawdust on the workshop floor.  However, as with carpentry, so with decision.  Difficult tasks are made easier, and the results are usually much better, when you use the right tool for the job.   Currently bCisive is the only (and hence the leading) software solution for deliberative decision making.

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    One lesson of the terrible Black Saturday fires in Victoria was that lines of communication can break down, with tragic consequences. Information which may have been available to some did not reach and so could not inform the decisions of those who had to act.

    The recently-released interim report of the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission is in many ways an impressive achievement, produced on a tight schedule.

    Ironically, however, the report is itself marred by broken lines of communication. In this case, they are the threads of argument relating the mass of information provided in the chapters with the Commission’s general recommendations.

    For example, the Commission has in effect concluded that the controversial “stay or go” policy should be retained, though in modified form (Rec. 7.1). But what exactly is the case for retaining this policy as opposed, for example, to “leave early,” which they acknowledge is “unquestionably the safest course”?

    Presumably the Report’s authors understand the case well enough, but nowhere have they succinctly and transparently laid it out. Relevant parts are scattered through Chapter 7, but considerable effort needed to pull them out and reconstruct them into a coherent whole.

    The Commission has given us a kind of logical jigsaw puzzle, but where many of the pieces don’t belong to the puzzle at all and others are missing entirely.

    What is the standard or benchmark against which this complaint is being made?

    Simply this: that for any significant conclusion or recommendation, the ordinary reader ought to be able to tell, reliably and without inordinate effort,

    (a) what are the main lines of argument for or against it, and for or against any salient alternative;

    (b) what is the detailed evidence backing up each of those lines of arguments

    (c) why the recommended option is on balance more strongly supported.

    The Report consistently fails to meet this mundane standard. It is, in fact, a document only a lawyer could love.

    Deficiencies of this kind are common in official reports, but they can have very serious consequences.

    First, and most importantly, the Commission may have made some errors of judgement. We trust the Commission to base every recommendation on due consideration of all relevant arguments. If it had those arguments clearly before its collective mind, then there should be no trouble presenting them in easily digestible form in the Report. Conversely, if the Commission does not or cannot present them succinctly and transparently, then what confidence can we have that they were ever properly considered?

    Second, recommendations may fail to be adopted. A case that cannot be identified or understood cannot be properly appreciated, and the recommendation may be unjustly rejected or neglected.

    Third, the Commission may suffer in the court of public opinion. Those inclined to disagree with a recommendation, unable to divine the Commission’s sweet logic, will suspect it of stupidity, ignorance, malice, cowardice or perhaps even involvement in some conspiracy.

    As it happens, the Victorian government has indicated that it will be accepting all the Commission’s recommendations.  However it is not at all clear that it did so because it clearly understood the Commission’s reasoning and recognized the compelling force of the arguments.  Rather, acceptance may have been driven primarily by political imperatives.   And it may in fact be accepting some ill-justified recommendations.

    Granted, the interim report is only a staging point in the Commission’s process. We can hope – and justifiably expect – that the final report will be much improved in this regard.

    Fortunately the problem should not be difficult to fix. It does not entail drastic changes to the form or substance of the report. Rather, the simple addition of “case summaries” would largely do the trick.

    Every significant conclusion or recommendation ought to have associated with it a succinct and transparent summary of the reasoning on which it is based, a summary satisfying the basic requirements listed above. It is not crucial where the case summary appears; it could be a in sidebar in the chapter body, directly alongside the recommendation, or in an appendix. What is crucial is that it be easily found, and easily followed.

    Simple “user testing” will show whether the case summary approach is working. Show a draft report to a handful of ordinary readers and simply ask them to find and explain the basis for any given recommendation or conclusion.

    Australia has just been experiencing record-smashing winter temperatures, consistent with dire predictions of global warming and its impacts. We should anticipate that the bushfire conditions of February 2009 will recur frequently. The conclusions of the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission will be of national significance for decades to come.

    Given the enormous investment of public resources in the Commission, the extra cost and effort required to address this problem of logical transparency would be negligible.  An appropriate commitment to logical housekeeping in the final report may help to save resources, property and many lives later on.

    It is well known that every issue of the Harvard Business Review includes a case study, an interesting business situation calling for a decision, with three expert commentaries.  The decision mapping methodology fits these case studies very well, as I illustrated in a previous post.

    Every month Julie Garland McLellan, an Australian consultant to company directors and Boards, provides a case study quite similar to the Harvard exemplars, though focused on challenges arising in the Board arena.  She says: “I advise Boards and Directors on complex and challenging issues which can be resolved in a variety of ways. Each way has different pros and cons for the individuals and companies concerned. Every month this newsletter considers three responses to a real issue. Which response would you choose?”  (My emphasis.)

    The current Director’s Dilemma describes a situation in which the Chairman is behaving indiscretely, and a director, Ashleigh, is concerned about this.  But what should be done?  The three commentaries, one by Julie herself, are rich in advice.  I took some time today to map it all out.   These maps (a) merge ideas from both the case itself and the three commentaries; and (b) don’t attempt to add any options or arguments of my own into the mix.

    directors_dilemma

    Click here or on the image for a zoomable pdf version.

    Some observations:

    (1) The three commentaries provided advice in three different categories: things that should be done by the Board in general, things that the Board should do specifically with regard to the Chairman, and things that Ashleigh specifically should do.  In the maps I’ve separated these out.

    (2) Between them, the commentators make lots of suggestions.

    (3) Cursory inspection of the maps makes it obvious that the commentaries are long on advice and short on arguments.  The maps are dominated by yellow (options, i.e., “possible things that might be done”) and have very little green and red (pros and cons, reasons and objections, evidence).  In other words, the commentators suggest lots of things that may or should be done, but provide very little by way of  justification for any of these.  This is despite the case being prefaced by the remark that “Each way has different pros and cons…”

    (4) If the commentators are not providing much (if anything) by way of explicit grounds for accepting or rejecting any of the canvassed options, why would the reader be inclined or obliged to endorse any of them?   Implicitly, I think, the commentators expecting readers to do two things.  First, readers should fill in the missing arguments themselves, as much as they are able.  Second, the commentators are relying on their status as authorities.  It is as if they had said ”Trust me on this; I’m a knowledgeable expert; this is what should happen.”

    I have recently been involved in a series of tutorials with a team from a law firm, involving mapping the arguments found in Federal or High Court judgements in the area of competition law.   For example we mapped the arguments presented by Chief Justice Gibbs of the High Court in the case Castlemaine Tooheys Ltd v Williams and Hodgson Transport Pty Ltd (1986) 68 ALR 376.  Here is the map in Rationale format:

    CastlemaineTooheys

    Figure 1.  Click on the thumbnail to view full size image, or download the zoomable PDF File, or (best) the Rationale file.

    Mapping these judgements is quite hard work.   This is due in part to the complexity of the arguments and their often turning on subtle conceptual distinctions.  However the difficulty is also largely due to the manner of expression, i.e. the way in which judges present complex legal arguments in traditional legal prose.  In a number of ways, this style of writing makes it very challenging to determine what the arguments are, at least at the level of clarity and rigour required for a well-developed argument map.

    Sparse use of logical language

    When we we present arguments in prose, we can use logical language to clearly indicate the logical connections between the parts of the argument.  So for example I might say

    A brewer cannot sell beer on the condition that the buyer engage a particular transport firm for delivery.  The reason is that this would amount to exclusive dealing.

    Here I have used the locution “The reason is” to help the reader understand that what follows is an argument for the preceding proposition.

    However if you look closely at the Gibbs judgement, you’ll find that there is surprisingly little logical language of this kind.   Argument pieces are provided, but with little clear and explicit flagging of their logical relationships.  For example:

    It is even more clear that there was no exclusive dealing of the kind mentioned in s.47(7).  The appellant did not refuse to supply the beer to any retailer.  It was already ready to supply any retailer, either by delivering it from the brewery to North Queensland, or by allowing it to be picked up from a regional depot.

    The phrase “it is even more clear that” does suggest that the following proposition (there was no exclusive dealing…) is a point being established or supported.  The following sentences constitute (in part) the argument for that proposition.  Note however that those sentences are simply stated immediately after the proposition to be established.  There is no explicit verbal flag that they constitute an/the argument.   You, the reader, are supposed to just “see” that.  The cue is contextual (proximity) rather than verbal.  Gibbs could have said something like “This is because…” – but he didn’t; he relied on non-verbal cues instead.  The trouble is that non-verbal cues to logical relationships are generally quite weak and ambiguous, and impose a heavy interpretative burden – and hence cognitive load – on the reader.

    Diverse or unclear logical language

    Even when logical language is used, there are innumerable different forms, with subtle differences in meaning.   Readers would have a much easier time identifying complex arguments if there were standard, unambiguous verbal conventions for signposting logical relations.  Unfortunately, there are not.  Of course there are some locutions that are used more often than others and are relatively unambiguous – e.g. “It follows that”.  But you also find obscure or archaic expressions like “does not gainsay”, and use of ambiguous terms like “however” and “but”.  Both of these common expressions can be functioning as argument structure indicators, but might be playing quite different role.

    Missing premises

    Another problem is that only some pieces of the argument are actually presented in the prose.  The rest are left unstated, with the expectation that the reader will be able to fill in the gaps.

    Consider again the passage quoted above.  What’s missing – at the very least – from this presentation of the argument is something like

    Exclusive dealing of the kind mentioned in s.47(7) would require the appellant to refuse to supply beer.

    Gibbs is assuming that the reader will understand that some proposition of this kind is part of the argument.  In this case it may seem a reasonable enough assumption.  However we know in general that people find it very hard to identify these missing parts, and when they try, there is huge variation in what they come up with.   In other words, it is dangerous to assume that readers will properly “read in” the missing pieces.  Even if they can do it correctly, it often takes signficant mental effort (though it is worth noting that very often, in simple cases, filling in the missing pieces is seemingly effortless).

    Missing intermediate pieces (“leaps of logic”)

    There are at least two kinds of missing pieces.  The first, just illustrated, is unstated co-premises; in other words, the argument is enthymematic.  The other kind are intermediate steps in the argument.  Here, in Rationale format, is an alternative rendering of the argument, making clear that between the general conclusion Gibbs is drawing (no exclusive dealing) and the  particular fact offered by way of proof (no refusal to supply beer) there is really an intermediate level of argument.

    Implicit_intermediate_level

    Figure 2.  Click on the thumbnail to view full-size version.

    In other words, judges often expect readers to fill in missing pieces both alongside and between the pieces that are provided.

    In fact, the first premise at the intermediate level had been provided, but many pages  before.  It was not (re)stated in the immediate context of the argument, though it did appear in the text, in a rather remote location, with many other pieces of the larger argument appearing in between.   Which brings up the next point…

    Ordering

    Consider an argument structure of the kind displayed in Figure 1.  Suppose you had to present that argument in ordinary prose.   Ordinary prose is essentially just a “linear” sequence of sentences – one sentence after another – though of course we can use some formatting to break up the monotony.    An issue you would be forced to address is: in what order do you present the pieces of the argument?

    There is a systematic way to map a hierarchical structure into a sequence.  In fact there are many such ways.  However, every such way necessarily involves placing items adjacent in the sequence when they are not adjacent in the hierarchy.  This is simply a topological fact, with an interesting consequence for presenting arguments in prose.  It means that pieces of the argument with no direct relationship to each other must end up adjacent to each other in the text (though there may be other material, not part of the pure argument structure, separating them).  In other words, the prose will “bounce around” the argument structure.

    puzzledWhen we study real examples of presentation of complex arguments in prose, such as the Gibbs judgement, and we look carefully at the order of presentation of pieces, we find that the author “bounces around” even more than is required mathematically.  In other words, in terms purely of ordering, the pieces are all “jumbled up”, almost as if pieces of a jigsaw had been thrown in a bag and drawn out one by one.

    Of course, there will generally be some kind of logic in the madness; the author is trying to present the pieces in an order which, with the surrounding text, will help the reader understand the argument.  The issue is whether the author has done as well as he could in this.   Other things being equal, the more the “dis-order” or jumbling, the more trouble the reader will have in reassembling the hierarchical structure.

    Intermingling with other material – and purposes

    Another problem is that a written judgement is not solely concerned with transparently presenting the argument.   First, there is other material needing to be presented.  For example, there are the facts of the case, including both the facts that are immediately involved in the argument as well as other information providing important context.  Also there will be related issues which the judge may feel should be discussed, even though they are not part of the core arguments.

    The trouble is that the presentation of the argument is intermingled with all this other material.  This means that the reader must pull apart what is argument, what is background, what is peripheral, etc..

    On a related point, the judge has purposes in addition to transparent presentation of argument.  There is a certain amount of rhetoric involved in presenting a judgement, since the goal is to persuade others such as the parties to the case, their lawyers, and other judges.  Further, most judges would like to think that their written judgements are well-crafted, readable, perhaps somewhat entertaining, and possibly even literary, in a legal fashion.   It turns out that these goals are somewhat in tension with the goal of presenting the argument transparently.   It is certainly possible to present complex arguments in prose in such a way as a suitably trained reader can see, without inordinate effort or doubt, exactly what the argument is.  The problem is that such text is not pleasant to read, and it may not be as persuasive as more mellifluous discourse.   It requires a true master of argumentative writing to simultaneously reward the reader’s taste for literature or entertainment, and their desire to understand a complex argument with crystal clarity.

    Argument Structure vs Essence

    I’ve been writing as if judges’ primary ambition, in drafting written judgements, is to transparently display a complex argument structure.  But often when reading these judgements it seems that the authors are  more concerned to convey the “conceptual essence” of the argument – the key insight(s) such that, if the reader get that insight, then they’ve grasped the real heart of the argument.  The key that unlocks the case.   How exactly that essence is embedded in a larger structure of argument may not be so important.   So you find judges “talking around” that key insight or argument step, doing multiple “takes” on the presenting the point so that if the reader doesn’t quite get it one way, they’ll get it another, gaining understanding through a kind of triangulation.

    Clearly conveying the conceptual essence of the case is of course a very important thing to do.  However it that is what the judge is primarily trying to do, then the effort devoted to this may be at the expense of, or even interfere with, transparent display of the rest of the case.

    Summing up

    Judges use written judgements to convey the complex set of arguments supporting their decision.  However it is difficult to extract the arguments from those written judgements, at the level of clarity and rigour demanded by good-quality argument mapping.   This difficulty is due in large part to various aspects of traditional legal prose.

    • Judges make surprisingly little use of verbal indicators of logical structure, and often use obscure or vague indicators
    • Judges present only some pieces of the arguments, expecting the reader to fill in the rest
    • The pieces necessarily appear in the text in a “disrupted” order, compared with their proper relationships in the argument structure
    • When producing their written judgements, judges have multiple purposes in addition to clearly conveying a complex structure; and the argument is intermingled, in the text, with other material
    • Judges may be more focused on conveying the conceptual essence of the argument than the full argument structure.

    These observations are based on a fairly small sample – a handful of judgements in the current round of tutorials, plus my occasional experience over the past few decades  grappling with similar legal writings.  Still, I’m confident that the factors listed would be in play in most legal argumentative writing, and indeed almost any time an author attempts to convey a complex argument in prose.

    If this is right, then if we’re faced with the challenge of presenting a complex argument in prose, we can help our readers by:

    • Making generous use of logical structure indicators, and trying to use a limited range of relatively standard, unambiguous ones
    • Explicitly stating more pieces of the argument
    • Trying to present the pieces in as coherent an order as possible, given the logical relationships among the pieces
    • Being aware of one’s purposes, and trying to compromising the clear expression of the argument by other purposes
    • Disentangling the presentation of the argument from presentation of other material
    • Not neglecting overall argument structure while conveying the conceptual essence.

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